Understanding the impact of COVID-19 – before, during, and after

It is predicted that South Africa will experience the peak of COVID-19 in September 2020. As we prepare to come out of the first lockdown later this week there is much on our minds, many unknowns and challenges to comprehend. Together though we can (and will) get through it all.

The current global health crisis is having an impact on all areas of lives and the far reaching ripple effects will have an impact for some time to come. The current constraints that we face are forcing us to think differently to adapt and requiring businesses to thinking deeply at a strategic level about the future to navigate the current environment accordingly.

Yesterday we joined a special briefing with Intellidex that explored the South African government’s R500bn economic stimulus package and the phased lockdown relief. The briefing was presented by Stuart Theobald, the Chairman of Intellidex, and Peter Attard Montalto, Head of Capital Markets Research at Intellidex.

The team at Intellidex has been working hard with many of their clients to understand the impact of COVID-19 and help develop strategic responses – interpreting the effects and modelling the impact on the economy and financial system.

“We are facing the largest health and economic crises of our generation. The economic thinking needed to navigate it is unprecedented”. As Stuart Theobald, Chairman of Intellidex, wrote in a column earlier this month, “it has elements of every crisis of the last century.”

Intellidex was founded in 2008 with an ambition to improve investor insight into Africa’s capital markets. In 2009 they began providing research and consulting services to financial institutions directly, particularly in the banking sector. This has evolved into a specialised market research capability and a financial services strategy consulting service through which we support banks and other providers to develop their businesses. From our South African base, we opened an office in London in 2010 and opened an office in Boston in 2018. Today Intellidex services a world-wide client base of blue-chip investors, banks and other companies.

There is a wealth (and sometimes overwhelming) amount of information relating to COVID-19 that we are exposed to on a daily basis. Picking credible sources to follow is important and as Carel mentions, Intellidex is definitely one of these.

Wary of #Covid_19SA info overload but keen on quality, clear data & analysis … tx @intellidex for providing that – most useful for planning. We’re in this for a long time still & need to be creative around getting economy working more pic.twitter.com/neVANpwNuv

— Carel Nolte (@carelnolte) April 28, 2020

The live webinar was hugely insightful – touching on key points and unpacking the thinking behind some of the economic restructuring that is required. Our Carel Nolte went to school at St Stithians College with Stuart Theobald. Carel regards Stuart as one of the smartest people he knows – a brilliant journalist and thinker. We ourselves and a few of our clients have worked with intellidex through the years, they consistently provide valuable insight and expertise to help navigate the changing landscape.

You can watch a recap of the presentation and discussion here.

There are also detailed views and opinions featured on the Intellidex blog that you may find useful in helping you to navigate the changing environment. Below are two of their latest pieces.

Reshaping the economy’s fundamental nature

“Discussion of the next steps of lockdown has seemingly been divorced from reality.

Some time has supposedly been bought with this first stage of lockdown, but it is hard to say with certainty to what extent given the epidemiological models have not been released.” Attard Montalto

A social disaster is brewing

“Perhaps one reason the government has been so slow in developing a decisive economic programme to mitigate the fallout from the Covid-19 crisis is that we don’t have the data. And without the data, it is easier not to panic.” Stuart Theobald

We are eager to hear your opinions, views and strategies that you are using to navigate this crisis. Please engage with us social media to start a conversation or reach out to us over email at talkto@cnandco.com.